The AKP government is on a knife edge. Let us list the recent internal and external developments...
The AKP government is on a knife edge. Let us list the recent internal and external developments:
- Internal Security Package negotiations in the parliament,
- The train-equip program,
- The operation of the Tomb of Salesman Shah,
- Abdullah Öcalan’s statement on the roadmap of the Kurdish Initiative,
- Joining the Mosul operation against ISIS,
- Military cooperation with Qatar,
- Erdoğan’s accepting Gül’s becoming an MP again and make up for his relationship with Fidan,
- The signs of agreements regarding the Central Bank’s decreasing the interests.
Erdoğan is at a dead end
Three months to go for the elections. The waves of the June Revolt will affect the general elections. Erdoğan’s actual votes were 38%. The aKP is going down.
Erdoğan saw this, and is looking for a solution, trying to solve the problems with the US, which is why Erdoğan sees Gül as a kind of a hero. The AKP is having trouble of developing tactics to win the elections. There are no big projects this time. The Kurdish Initiative and internal security package cannot be turned into votes. The AKP has to keep its voters.
The probable tactic of the AKP to win the elections is the Mosul operation. This tactic will hide the internal dead end to be seen from outside. It will also give reason for secterian propaganda on stage.
The summary of the Mosul operation: Iraqi government is winning against the ISIS. It is about to clear ISIS in Selahaddin after Diyala. The next stop is Mosul.
Iraqi army is doing this with its own power. It rejected the help proposal of the US. This process is giving the Iraqi army enough time to refresh its self-esteem, which worries the US, AKP, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Barzani, Usame Nuceyfi, Tarık Hashimi. Baghdad’s saving Mosul would finish the plan of separating Iraq.
It is quite likely that the waves of the June Revolt will hit soon again. If so, the Patriotic Party will enter the parliament. Those who protest the elections and vote in vain are more than 10% election threshold. These people do not vote for CHP, MHP or HDP.
Te Patriotic Party entering the parliament means bringing the illegal ways of the AKP government into the parliament [to discuss]. The number of AKP MPS would also drop. Lastly, it wold trigger the nationalistic feelings in CHP, MHP and AKP.
The struggle against the Mosul operation and internal security package is the key point go the Patriotic Party meeting with the effects of the June Revolt. You should not let the HDP fool you with its objections to the internal security package. The package is clearly use for oppressing the nationalistic parts of Turkey. The struggle against the Mosul operation is the struggle to fight for the unity of Turkey.