Rights and Wrongs in Iran Negotiations
Rafet Ballı

An Iranian senior official.

We were talking three days ago.

He told me that the agreement would be signed that night.

He was right: It was announced months ago.

The deadline for the agreement was 31 March.

But, it was not signed that night.

There were things to figure out.

***

2 April, 2015: The expected announcement came from Lausanne. Delayed for two days.

Summary: Initial settlement was signed on the nuclear case of Iran.

***

Now, the details.

One: This is not an agreement between the US and Iran.

Yes, Iran is one of the parties.

But, it is not just the US across it.

There are five more countries on the table: Five regular members of the Security Council and Germany.

It is called P5+1.

***

Second: Is the definitive agreement signed?

No: Not yet.

It is just an initial agreement in Lausanne. They agreed on the frame.

Parties said: We agreed on the agreement.

The deadline: 30 June, 2015.

Definitive signatures will be on that date.

***

Three: What happens if they do not agree?

Probably, they will prolong it.

Because: Nobody is willing to eave the table.

They have their own expectations.

***

Four: What happens if they sign it on 30 June?

Will the disagreement between the S and Iran come to an end?

Islamist have one concern: Is an agreement possible?

Let me answer shortly: No.

Nuclear case is just one of the disagreements.

There are more problems.

***

It is known: Two countries have fallen out since 1979 Islam Revolution. Those disagreements are quite comprehensive.

The Iranian accounts that the US seized.

Hundreds of millions are blocked according to Tehran.

Longe range rockets.

The situation at the Gulf.

Financial and technological embargos.

Diplomatic relationships are cut. Embassies are closed.

***

Five: Are the US embargo serious?

Answer: Certainly yes. Intensified since 2008.

Dollar has increased four times more.

What if no permission: Not a single dollar will enter the Iranian banks.

110 billion dollars are blocked outside Iran.

The result: Iranian nation is in serious condition.

***

(P.S. West cannot get a result with embargo.

It tested the financial embargo in Iran. Saw the result.

It is trying to same with Russia. Russia is resisting.

P.S. Every weapon gives birth to its opposite.

Searches started for the banking embargo.

First steps came from China.)

***

Six: Which embargo be removed if the agreement is signed?

Iran is nor dreaming.

They say: “Embargo will start to be removed due to nuclear.”

“But, this is just the 1/4 of the problem.”

“The ones since the Islam Revolution will continue.”

***

Seven: Is there anything different for Iran in the agreement?

Between Ruhani and Hamaney governments.

I am answering shortly: “Yes.”

An anonymous Iranian senior official said: “The government cannot even during water without the knowledge of Hamaney.”

It is true in terms of Iranian government system: Hamaney has the last word.

But: Ayetullahs of Iran is not like our Islamists. They know the world and state.

It is realistic to stand strong. And their flexibility.

Yedi: Nükleer dosyada İran içinde farklılık mı var?

***

Yes, conservatives are not happy with the agreement.

They say: “All our red lines are crossed.”

Leader writer of Keyhan Newspaper Hüseyin Şeriatmedari said:

“Iran gave a trained horse and took a decay bridle instead.”

Caution: Şeriatmedari is the official representative of Keyhan.

***

His basic objections: Iran agreed to go back to the beginning. It will get only 3.67 richer. It will leave 20% to oxidation. Embargo will be removed stage by stage. It i snot a guarantee, though.

***

Now we see: Hamaney will allow the agreement. It would be good if the embargo is removed. If not, the government will have to take the whole responsibility. It will go back to the beginning.

Governments are temporary. state is permanent.

In the meantime, there might be surprises.
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